In 2025, the Calgary real estate market is expected to remain robust, supported by past gains in population and employment, easing lending rates, and better supply options. However, factors such as slowing migration from record highs, increased competition from new home construction, and heightened economic uncertainty may limit further growth in resale activity.
Despite these challenges, the forecasted sales of over 26,000 units reflect a strong housing market, with activity levels over 20% higher than long-term trends. This indicates that Homes For Sale Calgary will continue to attract interest from both buyers and sellers.
The market is expected to move toward more balanced conditions, which could slow price growth to an annual gain of around three percent. According to CREB®’s Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie, this shift should help maintain strong absorption levels across Calgary while bringing stability to the housing sector.
Expectations Vs Fluctuations
The Calgary housing market has seen significant fluctuations in recent years, driven by shifts in supply and demand dynamics. In 2024, for instance, the limited supply of lower-priced detached homes constrained sales activity, particularly in the lower price ranges. However, new listings in higher price ranges helped ease seller-market conditions at the upper end. Looking ahead to 2025, improved inventory options priced above $600,000 are expected to support continued demand.
Easing lending rates and pent-up demand should offset the impact of slowing population growth, keeping sales slightly higher than last year. These trends suggest that potential buyers and sellers in Calgary need to prepare strategically based on their unique circumstances. For example, first-time buyers might focus on affordable semi-detached or row homes, while those looking to upgrade can explore newly constructed properties entering the market.
The Current Economic Landscape
Alberta’s economy continues to thrive, despite the no-so-favourable exchange rates, but benefiting from higher energy prices, and increased production following the opening of the TMX pipeline.
Additionally, substantial population growth—driven by both international and interprovincial migration—has bolstered housing and construction activity despite the challenges posed by higher lending rates.
In 2024, Alberta led all provinces in economic growth. Looking ahead to 2025, concerns over potential U.S. tariffs have tempered growth expectations, but most forecasts still anticipate Alberta’s economy continuing to expand.
Beyond the energy sector, economic growth is expected to be supported by investments in alternative energy, carbon capture and storage, food manufacturing, and artificial intelligence data centers. These industries, combined with anticipated rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, are set to play a key role in driving economic activity.
However, there are risks to consider. The Monetary Policy Report (MPR) highlights how the threat of U.S. tariffs is causing major uncertainty in financial markets and business decisions. While no tariffs are currently incorporated into projections, the mere possibility is already affecting investor confidence and business investment intentions.
Furthermore, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar since October 2024 adds another layer of complexity. As noted in major financial briefings, the loonie fell nearly 8% against the greenback in 2024, hitting a two-decade low of C$1.44. Experts predict further weakening in 2025, with projections ranging from C$1.45 to C$1.50.
This currency movement could influence everything from import costs to inflation rates, impacting consumer sentiment and potentially altering plans for homes for sale in Calgary. For instance, if tariffs materialize, they could disrupt global trade flows, negatively affecting Alberta’s economy and, consequently, its housing market.
Calgary’s Real Estate Market Outlook for 2025
In 2025, Calgary’s real estate market is poised for steady growth, albeit at a slower pace compared to previous years. The forecast indicates that housing demand will remain above long-term trends, supported by easing lending rates and improved supply choices.
New home construction has added significantly to the market supply, contributing to an increase in resale listings. As more new homes are completed, overall supply is projected to grow, helping the market transition toward more balanced conditions. This shift is expected to moderate citywide price growth, which rose by seven percent in 2024 but is now forecasted to grow by just three percent in 2025.
Price changes will vary across market segments, with lower-priced resale homes seeing stronger growth due to steady demand and limited supply options. Higher-priced homes, on the other hand, may face slower price appreciation due to increased competition from new builds.
For buyers navigating the Calgary real estate market, understanding these dynamics is crucial. For instance, affordability-focused districts like North East Calgary are likely to see stronger demand and price growth, making them attractive options for first-time buyers or investors seeking Homes For Sale Calgary within budget-friendly neighbourhoods. Meanwhile, luxury buyers might find opportunities in areas where new developments are adding inventory.
On the seller’s side, timing becomes critical. Sellers should aim to capitalize on the current momentum before the market fully transitions to balanced conditions. According to the latest CREB® report, rising listings and new builds are helping alleviate supply shortages, particularly in mid- to upper-price ranges. By staying informed about local trends, both buyers and sellers can make smarter decisions tailored to their needs.
What Are The Factors Influencing Buying and Selling Decisions?
Economic context plays a pivotal role in shaping the Calgary real estate market outlook. Easing lending rates and more supply choices are expected to support relatively strong demand throughout 2025. For example, the Overnight Target Rate forecast predicts a drop to 2.00% by Q4-2025, according to the MPR. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, encouraging more individuals to enter the housing market.
Slower interprovincial migration, however, could impact activity in higher-price ranges, as fewer newcomers may opt for premium properties. Additionally, market segmentation will influence price trends; supply growth compared to demand in the upper price ranges is expected to slow the pace of growth. These factors underscore the importance of strategic planning when buying or selling a home in Calgary.
Population growth remains a key driver of housing demand, though it is expected to slow in 2025. Federal immigration policy changes are anticipated to slow the influx of both temporary and permanent international migrants, while interprovincial migration is also projected to ease.
Employment growth, meanwhile, is forecasted to reach two percent in 2025, driven by gains in construction, retail trade, healthcare, and education sectors. This positive employment trend supports household spending and housing activity, providing a solid foundation for the Calgary real estate market.
However, the threat of tariffs looms large, with potential implications for employment, investment, and consumer confidence. Should broad 25% tariffs be imposed on all exports, Alberta’s economy could enter a recession, reducing housing demand even as supply levels rise. Conversely, the exclusion of the energy sector from tariffs or short-lived disputes could bolster economic growth and improve job prospects, further strengthening housing demand.
Strategies for Buyers and Sellers
For home buyers in Calgary, timing your purchase is essential. The market’s shift toward balanced conditions presents an opportunity for buyers to negotiate better deals, especially in higher-price ranges where supply is increasing. Buyers should take advantage of the relatively stable environment and competitive pricing offered by easing lending rates.
Affordability considerations are equally important; semi-detached and row homes provide relatively more affordable options within desirable communities. For example, Chestermere’s semi-detached and row homes saw double-digit annual price growth in 2024, reflecting strong demand for denser housing alternatives. Working with experienced agents who understand local market dynamics and can navigate economic uncertainties is vital for securing the best value.
Sellers must also adapt to changing market conditions. Preparing your home for sale involves staging and highlighting features that appeal to specific buyer segments, such as location or modern amenities.
Pricing strategically is another critical factor; setting competitive pricing based on recent market data and neighbourhood trends ensures quicker sales. Leveraging market knowledge through collaboration with knowledgeable agents helps optimize timing and presentation. For instance, sellers in high-demand areas like Canmore, where detached home prices averaged $1.6 million in 2024, may benefit from emphasizing unique attributes like mountain views or proximity to tourist attractions.
Ultimately, whether you’re searching for Homes For Sale Calgary or preparing to list your property, being proactive and informed is key to success in this evolving market.
Regional Highlights
Surrounding areas around Calgary offer diverse opportunities for buyers and sellers. Airdrie, for example, experienced strong housing demand in 2024, fueled by its growing population, which rose from just over 70,000 residents in 2019 to over 85,000 in 2024.
Rising new home construction and gains in resale listings helped boost inventory levels, shifting the market away from extreme seller-favoured conditions. Prices across all property types increased, with annual gains ranging from nine percent in the detached market to over 20 percent for apartment-style homes.
Similarly, Cochrane faced ongoing supply constraints relative to demand, resulting in benchmark prices rising nearly nine percent annually. Detached benchmark prices averaged $664,625, marking the fourth consecutive year of strong growth.
Other regions show varying trends. Okotoks maintained tight market conditions despite modest inventory gains, driving price increases across all property types. Row homes in Strathmore remained highly sought after, with prices surging 15% in 2024. Meanwhile, Canmore’s unique mountain location and tourist appeal made apartment condos particularly popular, accounting for nearly 46% of all sales.
Each area offers distinct advantages depending on buyer preferences and budget constraints. For instance, High River’s affordability ($558,225 average detached price) makes it appealing for families seeking cost-effective living solutions.
Understanding regional nuances allows buyers and sellers to identify the right opportunities within the broader Calgary real estate market ecosystem.
Broader Economic Context
Inflation in Canada has been hovering around 2%, supported by easing shelter price inflation. According to the MPR, CPI inflation remains close to target, although shelter services price inflation is elevated and easing slowly. With the GST/HST holiday ending in March 2025, inflation in certain categories will likely rebound, influencing purchasing power and mortgage affordability.
For homeowners considering selling, this inflationary pressure could work in their favour by boosting asset values. Conversely, buyers may face higher costs for goods and services, tightening budgets and limiting disposable income available for down payments or monthly mortgage payments.
Global economic growth remains near 3%, with headline inflation close to central bank targets in many countries. However, uncertainty has increased amid political and trade tensions. In the United States, persistent inflation and ongoing strength in the economy have led markets to expect fewer policy rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has weakened significantly, falling nearly 8% against the U.S. dollar in 2024.
Currency watchers predict further depreciation, with projections ranging from C$1.45 to C$1.50 by the end of 2025. A weaker loonie could increase import costs, affecting building materials and machinery prices, thereby impacting construction timelines and costs. It also means that Canadian exports become more competitive globally, potentially offsetting some negative effects of tariffs.
Buyers and sellers alike should monitor these macroeconomic factors closely to gauge their potential impact on the Calgary real estate market.
Currency Outlook and Its Impact
The depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar since October 2024 reflects rising uncertainty around trade policies and widening interest rate differentials. The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 175 basis points in 2024, compared to only 75 basis points of easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve. With the Bank of Canada’s interest rate sitting at 3.25% and the U.S. Fed at a range of 4.25%-4.50%, the gap stands at a hefty 1.00%-1.25%.
This divergence persists into 2025, putting additional downward pressure on the loonie. David Doyle of Macquarie Group predicts the loonie’s weakness will worsen to C$1.45 against the U.S. dollar in the third quarter of 2025.
While a weaker Canadian dollar poses challenges, it also brings opportunities. For instance, Canadian investors benefit from enhanced returns when converting gains from USD-denominated securities back into CAD. Moreover, a softer loonie enhances the competitiveness of Canadian exports, potentially offsetting tariff-related disruptions.
However, excessive currency weakness could stoke inflation and hinder efforts to revitalize consumer sentiment. If implemented, U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration would likely result in further Canadian dollar weakness, warns Doyle. While the immediate impact might be negative, clarity around trade policies could mitigate risks over time.
Therefore, buyers and sellers in the Calgary real estate market must account for currency fluctuations in their decision-making process.
Risks and Opportunities
Upside risks to the Calgary real estate market include scenarios where tariffs are mostly avoided, leading to stronger economic growth and rising investment. Exclusion of the energy sector or short-lived disputes could drive higher employment, attracting interprovincial migration and improving consumer confidence, thereby supporting stronger housing demand and price growth.
Another upside scenario involves easing lending rates combined with stable economic conditions, fostering stronger-than-expected sales and delaying the shift to balanced conditions.
On the flip side, downside risks stem from broad 25% tariffs on all exports, pushing Alberta’s economy into a recession and reducing investment, employment, and consumer confidence. Prolonged economic uncertainty—even without broad tariffs—could weaken consumer confidence and delay housing decisions.
To illustrate, consider the hypothetical scenario outlined in the MPR, where the U.S. imposes permanent 25% tariffs on all imported goods, including Canadian products. In response, Canada and other trading partners retaliate with similar measures.
Under such conditions, Canadian GDP growth could decline significantly, leading to job losses and reduced consumer spending. Housing markets might experience a slowdown, with fewer buyers entering the fray and increased inventory weighing on prices. Yet, a silver lining exists: a weaker Canadian dollar could enhance export competitiveness, mitigating some adverse effects. Thus, while risks abound, so too do opportunities for those prepared to adapt swiftly.
Bottom Line
Navigating the Calgary real estate market in 2025 requires a keen understanding of current economic realities and market trends. From population growth and employment prospects to interest rate movements and currency performance, multiple factors intersect to shape housing demand and supply dynamics.
Staying informed about these variables empowers buyers and sellers to make well-informed decisions aligned with their goals. Whether you’re exploring Homes For Sale Calgary or evaluating the best time to sell, partnering with experienced real estate professionals ensures access to up-to-date insights and expert guidance.
Looking forward, the Calgary real estate market appears resilient yet sensitive to external shocks like tariffs and monetary policy divergence. Buyers should prioritize affordability and location, focusing on neighbourhoods with strong growth potential. Sellers, meanwhile, must price competitively and highlight unique selling points to stand out in a gradually balancing market.
The crucial message is to leverage available resources and maintain flexibility, this way, both buyers and sellers in the Calgary housing market can achieve optimal outcomes regardless of prevailing conditions.
To learn more about how these trends affect your specific situation, feel free to reach out for personalized advice tailored to your needs.
Ready to dig deeper into the Calgary real estate market as a buyer or seller? Contact us today for a free consultation and discover how we can help you navigate this dynamic landscape!