Factors Influencing Buyers and Sellers of Homes in Calgary [2025]

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In 2025, the Calgary real estate market is expected to remain robust, with a mix of economic factors shaping decisions for both buyers and sellers. This article explores the key drivers impacting the housing market, offering insights to help you make informed choices. Infographics and images are included to provide visual clarity.

Economic Context: The Broader Picture

The Calgary real estate market operates within the larger framework of Alberta’s and Canada’s economies. Alberta’s energy sector continues to thrive, bolstered by higher energy prices, favourable exchange rates, and increased production following the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline. Investments in alternative energy, carbon capture, food manufacturing, and artificial intelligence are driving economic activity. Meanwhile, easing lending rates are supporting household spending and housing activity.  

However, potential U.S. tariffs remain a significant risk. The Monetary Policy Report (MPR) highlights that while no tariffs have been incorporated into current forecasts, their threat has already caused uncertainty in financial markets and business decisions. If broad 25% tariffs on all exports materialize, Alberta’s economy could enter a recession, negatively affecting investment, employment, and consumer confidence [MPR]. Conversely, if the energy sector is exempt or tariffs prove short-lived, stronger economic growth could boost housing demand and price appreciation.

Alberta Economic Forecast vs Tariff Scenarios

3% 0% -1%
No Tariffs Moderate Tariffs Broad Tariffs
4% 3% 2%
GDP Growth
Inflation Rate

Figure 1: Alberta GDP Growth Forecast vs Potential Tariff Scenarios

Interest Rates: A Key Driver of Affordability

Interest rates play a pivotal role in determining affordability and buyer confidence. In 2024, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate significantly, contributing to an increase in household spending and housing activity. The Overnight Target Rate forecast projects further reductions, settling at 2.00% by Q4-2025. Lower interest rates reduce monthly mortgage payments, making homeownership more accessible for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade.  

A weaker Canadian dollar, driven by growing policy divergence between the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, could raise costs for imported goods like machinery and building materials. However, it might also enhance export competitiveness, offsetting some adverse effects.  

Quarter

Bank of Canada Rate

U.S Fed Rate (%)

Rate Differential

Q1-2025

2.75 

4.25–4.50 

1.50–1.75 

Q4-2025 

2.00   

4.25–4.50

2.25–2.50 

Table 1: Interest Rate Differentials Between Canada and the U.S.

Population Growth and Migration Trends

Population dynamics directly influence housing demand and inventory levels. While migration into Alberta remains robust, it is projected to slow slightly in 2025, aligning with federal immigration policy changes aimed at reducing non-permanent resident inflows. Despite this moderation, Calgary’s population growth is still anticipated to outpace provincial averages, driven by international migration and continued interprovincial movement.  

Slower migration could temper demand in higher-price ranges, where newcomers often focus their searches. Meanwhile, steady growth in lower-priced segments ensures ongoing interest among first-time buyers and families seeking affordable living options. For instance, according to the lates CREB Report, areas like North East Calgary continue to see strong demand due to their relative affordability compared to central districts.

Figure 2: Calgary Population Growth Projections

Source: Conference Board of Canada, ATB Economics

6% 4% 2% 0%
2023 2024 2025 (F)
Calgary
Alberta

Note: Forecasted values are denoted by "(F)" and are based on available data as of December 31, 2024.

Employment and Labour Market Conditions

Employment trends shape purchasing power and housing preferences. In 2024, Calgary experienced notable job growth in manufacturing, accommodation, food services, transportation, warehousing, and information, culture, and recreation sectors. Looking ahead, employment levels are expected to grow by two percent in 2025, led by gains in construction, retail trade, healthcare, and education.  

While employment growth supports housing demand, easing migration will likely slow labor force expansion, preventing further increases in unemployment rates. This stabilization benefits existing homeowners who rely on stable income streams but may limit opportunities for new entrants into the workforce seeking starter homes.  

Key Employment Sectors:  

  • Construction 
  • Retail Trade
  • Healthcare and
  • Social Assistance
  • Educational Services

Figure 3: Calgary Employment Growth Forecast

Source: Conference Board of Canada (F)

4.4%
2.3%
2.0%
5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
2023 2024 2025 (F)

Note: Forecasted values are denoted by "(F)" and are based on available data as of December 31, 2024.

Currency Fluctuations: Impact on Real Estate

Currency movements add another layer of complexity to the housing market. Over 2024, the Canadian dollar depreciated nearly 8% against the U.S. dollar, reaching a two-decade low of C$1.44. Analysts predict further weakening in 2025, with projections ranging from C$1.45 to C$1.50. This depreciation stems from multiple factors, including rising uncertainty around trade policies, growing policy divergence between the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, and concerns about potential tariffs under the Trump administration.  

A weaker loonie has mixed implications for the housing market. On one hand, it boosts returns for Canadian investors holding USD-denominated assets, enhancing wealth effects. On the other hand, higher import costs for goods like machinery and equipment could inflate construction expenses, potentially slowing new developments.  

Projected Exchange Rates:  

  • Current: ~C$1.44
  • Q3-2025: ~C$1.45
  • End-2025: ~C$1.50 

Figure 4: Canadian Dollar vs. US Dollar Projection

Source: Financials Document, Macquarie Group, BMO Economics

1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Actual
Forecast

Note: Projections range from C$1.45 to C$1.50 by Q3-2025 due to potential tariffs and monetary policy divergence.

Property Type Analysis: What’s Hot and What’s Not  

Detached Homes  

Limited supply in lower-price ranges constrained sales activity in 2024, particularly for homes priced below $600,000. New listings in higher price brackets helped alleviate some pressure, resulting in an annual benchmark price increase of 11%. By 2025, improved inventory options above $600,000 are expected to moderate price growth to around three percent annually.  

Benchmark Prices by Zone:  

  • North: $682,775
  • West: $957,292 
  • South: $782,642  

Figure 5: Benchmark Price Changes Across Zones

Source: CREB® Forecast Report

$682K
$782K
$957K
$941K
$558K
$1M $750K $500K $250K $0
North North West West City Centre South

Note: Prices reflect year-over-year changes as of Q4-2024.

Semi-Detached Homes 

Affordability pressures drove many buyers to semi-detached properties in 2024, with sales increasing by nearly five percent. Rising new listings supported modest inventory gains, especially in higher price ranges. Prices are still projected to increase by over three percent in 2025 as supply improves.  

Row Homes

After a prolonged period of limited inventory, a surge in new listings in 2024 led to rising inventories, alleviating some pressure on prices. Strong sales ensured seller-favoured conditions for much of the year, driving a 14% annual increase in prices. Higher-priced units face more competition, reducing upward price pressure.

Apartment Condos 

Limited supply in lower price ranges encouraged buyers to turn to apartment-style homes over the past two years. Most inventory growth occurred for units priced above $300,000, leaving less than 30% of the inventory priced below this threshold. As more units are completed in the new home sector, supply is expected to better align with population growth, improving overall market balance.  

Property Type

Price Growth Forecast (%)

Demand Outlook

Detached 

3

Stronger demand in affordable zones

Semi-Detached

3+

Driven by affordability challenges

Row

3

Balanced conditions in high-price areas

Apartment 

<2

Slower growth due to rising supply

Table 2: Property Type Performance in 2025

Regional Highlights: Beyond Calgary 

Surrounding areas offer diverse opportunities for buyers and sellers. Below is a snapshot of key regional markets according to the latest CREB Report:

 

  • Airdrie

Airdrie’s growing population supported strong housing demand in 2024. Benchmark prices rose across all property types, with detached homes averaging $642,075—a nine percent increase year-over-year. 

 

  • Cochrane

Cochrane faced ongoing supply constraints relative to demand. Tight market conditions drove benchmark prices up nearly nine percent annually, with detached homes averaging $664,625. 

 

  • Okotoks

Improved new listings in 2024 supported sales growth and modest inventory gains in Okotoks. However, inventory levels remained at half the historical average, reflecting exceptionally tight conditions. Benchmark prices averaged $693,933, marking eight percent growth year-over-year. 

Chestermere

Chestermere experienced record-high home sales in 2024, driven by increased higher-density housing activity. Detached benchmark prices averaged $796,067, up eight percent from the previous year.

  

  • High River 

High River’s affordability fueled strong demand in 2024, with sales 20% above the long-term average. Detached home prices averaged $558,225, rising nine percent amid tight seller’s market conditions. 

 

  • Strathmore

Strathmore’s persistent seller’s market reflects near-record-low inventory levels. Despite declining new listings, prices rose across all property types, with row homes seeing the highest growth at 15%.

 

  • Canmore

Canmore’s unique mountain location and tourist appeal drive demand for apartment condos, which account for 46% of all sales. Sales trended down post-pandemic highs but remained relatively strong despite higher interest rates and a foreign buyer ban since 2023.

Figure 6: Key Regional Markets Overview

Source: CREB® Forecast Report

$642K
$664K
$693K
$796K
$558K
$538K
$1.6M
$1.6M $1.2M $800K $400K $0
Airdrie Cochrane Okotoks Chestermere High River Strathmore Canmore

Note: Data reflects benchmark prices as of Q4-2024.

Risks and Opportunities: Ensuring Success Within The Uncertainty 

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Upside Risks  

  • Exclusion of Energy Sector from Tariffs: If the energy sector avoids tariffs, Alberta could experience stronger economic growth, attracting interprovincial migration and boosting housing demand. 
  • Easing Lending Rates: Lower borrowing costs combined with stable economic conditions could support stronger-than-expected sales, delaying the shift to balanced conditions.  

Downside Risks  

  • Broad 25% Tariffs on All Exports: Severe tariffs could push Alberta’s economy into a recession, reducing investment, employment, and consumer confidence. 
  • Prolonged Economic Uncertainty: Even without broad tariffs, prolonged uncertainty could weaken consumer confidence and delay housing decisions.  

Strategies for Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers  

  • Timing Your Purchase: Take advantage of balanced market conditions and competitive pricing offered by easing lending rates. Focus on neighborhoods with steady demand and limited supply options, such as North East Calgary.  
  • Affordability Considerations: Opt for semi-detached or row homes in desirable communities for relatively more affordable options.  

Work with Experienced Agents: Partner with agents who understand local market dynamics and can navigate economic uncertainties effectively.  

For Sellers

  • Prepare Your Home for Sale: Highlight features that appeal to specific buyer segments, such as modern amenities or proximity to employment hubs.  
  • Set Competitive Pricing: Base your listing price on recent market data and neighborhood trends to attract competitive offers.  
  • Leverage Market Knowledge: Collaborate with knowledgeable agents to optimize timing and presentation, ensuring maximum value.  

Figure 7: Key Factors Influencing Calgary Real Estate in 2025

Source: CREB® Forecast Report, MPR, Financials Document

Economic Context

Easing lending rates and more supply choice support strong demand.

Population Growth

Slower interprovincial migration may impact higher-price ranges.

Market Segmentation

Supply growth compared to demand in upper price ranges slows price growth.

Affordability Pressures

Semi-detached homes provide relatively more affordable options within desirable communities.

Tariff Risks

Potential U.S. tariffs could disrupt economic activity and housing demand.

Currency Fluctuations

A weaker loonie boosts export competitiveness but raises costs for imported goods.

Note: These factors are based on projections and expert analysis provided in the CREB® Forecast Report, MPR, and Financials Document.

Bottom Line

Dealing in the Calgary real estate market in 2025 requires understanding the interplay of economic factors, interest rates, population trends, and regional nuances. Staying informed about these variables empowers buyers and sellers to make well-informed decisions aligned with their goals.

Whether exploring Homes For Sale Calgary or evaluating the best time to sell, partnering with experienced real estate professionals ensures access to up-to-date insights and expert guidance.  

For personalized advice tailored to your situation, feel free to reach out for a consultation!

References 

  1. CREB® Forecast Report  
  2. Monetary Policy Report (MPR)  
  3. Financial Insights Document
  4. Calgary Real Estate Market Report
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